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Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. What is Uncertainty in Classification? Uncertainty refers to the model’s confidence or doubt in its predictions. Quantifying uncertainty is important to understand how reliable each prediction is. In multiclass classification , uncertainty estimates provide probabilities over multiple classes, reflecting how sure the model is about each possible class. 2. Methods to Estimate Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification Most multiclass classifiers provide methods such as: predict_proba: Returns a probability distribution across all classes. decision_function: Returns scores or margins for each class (sometimes called raw or uncalibrated confidence scores). The probability distribution from predict_proba captures the uncertainty by assigning a probability to each class. 3. Shape and Interpretation of predict_proba in Multiclass Output shape: (n_samples, n_classes) Each row corresponds to the probabilities of ...
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Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. What is Uncertainty in Classification? Uncertainty refers to the model’s confidence or doubt in its predictions. Quantifying uncertainty is important to understand how reliable each prediction is. In multiclass classification , uncertainty estimates provide probabilities over multiple classes, reflecting how sure the model is about each possible class. 2. Methods to Estimate Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification Most multiclass classifiers provide methods such as: predict_proba: Returns a probability distribution across all classes. decision_function: Returns scores or margins for each class (sometimes called raw or uncalibrated confidence scores). The probability distribution from predict_proba captures the uncertainty by assigning a probability to each class. 3. Shape and Interpretation of predict_proba in Multiclass Output shape: (n_samples, n_classes) Each row corresponds to the probabilities of ...
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Predicting Probabilities

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. What is Predicting Probabilities? The predict_proba method estimates the probability that a given input belongs to each class. It returns values in the range [0, 1] , representing the model's confidence as probabilities. The sum of predicted probabilities across all classes for a sample is always 1 (i.e., they form a valid probability distribution). 2. Output Shape of predict_proba For binary classification , the shape of the output is (n_samples, 2) : Column 0: Probability of the sample belonging to the negative class. Column 1: Probability of the sample belonging to the positive class. For multiclass classification , the shape is (n_samples, n_classes) , with each column corresponding to the probability of the sample belonging to that class. 3. Interpretation of predict_proba Output The probability reflects how confidently the model believes a data point belongs to each class. For example, in ...
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The Decision Functions

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. What is the Decision Function? The decision_function method is provided by many classifiers in scikit-learn. It returns a continuous score for each sample, representing the classifier’s confidence or margin. This score reflects how strongly the model favors one class over another in binary classification, or a more complex set of scores in multiclass classification. 2. Shape and Output of decision_function For binary classification , the output shape is (n_samples,). Each value is a floating-point number indicating the degree to which the sample belongs to the positive class. Positive values indicate a preference for the positive class; negative values indicate a preference for the negative class. For multiclass classification , the output is usually a 2D array of shape (n_samples, n_classes), providing scores for each class. 3. Interpretation of decision_function Scores The sign of the value (positive or...
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Uncertainty Estimates from Classifiers

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. Overview of Uncertainty Estimates Many classifiers do more than just output a predicted class label; they also provide a measure of confidence or uncertainty in their predictions. These uncertainty estimates help understand how sure the model is about its decision , which is crucial in real-world applications where different types of errors have different consequences (e.g., medical diagnosis). 2. Why Uncertainty Matters Predictions are often thresholded to produce class labels, but this process discards the underlying probability or decision value. Knowing how confident a classifier is can: Improve decision-making by allowing deferral in uncertain cases. Aid in calibrating models. Help in evaluating the risk associated with predictions. Example: In medical testing, a false negative (missing a disease) can be worse than a false positive (extra test). 3. Methods to Obtain Uncertainty from Classifiers 3.1 ...
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