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Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. What is Uncertainty in Classification? Uncertainty refers to the model’s confidence or doubt in its predictions. Quantifying uncertainty is important to understand how reliable each prediction is. In multiclass classification , uncertainty estimates provide probabilities over multiple classes, reflecting how sure the model is about each possible class. 2. Methods to Estimate Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification Most multiclass classifiers provide methods such as: predict_proba: Returns a probability distribution across all classes. decision_function: Returns scores or margins for each class (sometimes called raw or uncalibrated confidence scores). The probability distribution from predict_proba captures the uncertainty by assigning a probability to each class. 3. Shape and Interpretation of predict_proba in Multiclass Output shape: (n_samples, n_classes) Each row corresponds to the probabilities of ...
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Linear Regression

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Dr. Rishabh Pathak

Linear regression is one of the most fundamental and widely used algorithms in supervised learning, particularly for regression tasks. Below is a detailed exploration of linear regression, including its concepts, mathematical foundations, different types, assumptions, applications, and evaluation metrics.

1. Definition of Linear Regression

Linear regression aims to model the relationship between one or more independent variables (input features) and a dependent variable (output) as a linear function. The primary goal is to find the best-fitting line (or hyperplane in higher dimensions) that minimizes the discrepancy between the predicted and actual values.

2. Mathematical Formulation

The general form of a linear regression model can be expressed as:

hθ​(x)=θ0​+θ1​x1​+θ2​x2​+...+θn​xn​

Where:

  • hθ​(x) is the predicted output given input features x.
  • θ₀​ is the y-intercept (bias term).
  • θ1, θ2,..., θn​​​ are the weights (coefficients) corresponding to each feature x2,..., xn​​​.

The aim is to learn the parameters θ that minimize the error between predicted and actual outputs.

3. Loss Function

Linear regression typically uses the Mean Squared Error (MSE) as the loss function:

J(θ)=n1​∑i=1n​(y(i)−hθ​(x(i)))2

Where:

  • n is the number of training examples.
  • y(i) is the actual output for the i-th training example.
  • hθ​(x(i)) is the predicted value for the i-th training example.

The goal is to minimize J(θ) by optimizing the parameters θ.

4. Learning Algorithm

The most common method to optimize the parameters in linear regression is Gradient Descent. The update rule for the parameters during the learning process is given by:

θj​:=θj​−α∂θj​∂J(θ)​

Where:

  • α is the learning rate, controlling the size of the steps taken in parameter space during optimization.

5. Types of Linear Regression

There are various forms of linear regression, including:

  • Simple Linear Regression: Involves a single independent variable. For example, predicting house prices based solely on square footage.
  • Multiple Linear Regression: Involves multiple independent variables. For example, predicting house prices using both square footage and the number of bedrooms.
  • Polynomial Regression: A form of linear regression where the relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable is modeled as an n-th degree polynomial. Although it can model non-linear relationships, it is still treated as linear regression concerning parameters.

6. Assumptions of Linear Regression

For linear regression to provide valid results, several key assumptions must be met:

1. Linearity: The relationship between the independent and dependent variables must be linear.

2.     Independence: The residuals (errors) should be independent.

3.  Homoscedasticity: The residuals should have constant variance at all levels of the independent variable(s).

4.  Normality: The residuals should follow a normal distribution, particularly important for inference and hypothesis testing.

7. Applications of Linear Regression

Linear regression is used in various fields and applications, including:

  • Economics: To model relationships between economic indicators, such as income and spending.
  • Healthcare: To predict health outcomes based on various input features such as age, weight, and medical history.
  • Finance: For forecasting market trends or asset valuations based on historical data.
  • Real Estate: To approximate housing prices based on location, size, and other attributes.

8. Evaluation Metrics

To evaluate the performance of a linear regression model, several metrics can be used, including

  • Coefficient of Determination (R²): Represents the proportion of variance for the dependent variable that is explained by the independent variables. Values range from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating better model fit.

R2=1−∑i=1n​(y(i)−yˉ​)2∑i=1n​(y(i)−hθ​(x(i)))2​

Where yˉ​ is the mean of the actual output values.

  • Mean Absolute Error (MAE): The average of the absolute differences between predicted and actual values. It provides a straightforward interpretation of error magnitude.

MAE=n1​∑i=1n​∣y(i)−hθ​(x(i))∣

  • Mean Squared Error (MSE): As previously noted, it squares the errors to penalize larger errors more significantly.

9. Conclusion

Linear regression is a foundational technique in machine learning that provides an intuitive way to model relationships between variables. Despite its simplicity, it can yield powerful insights and predictions when the underlying assumptions are satisfied. For further details about linear regression and its applications, please refer to the lecture notes, especially the sections discussing Linear Regression and the LMS algorithm.

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