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Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification

Dr. Rishabh Pathak
1. What is Uncertainty in Classification? Uncertainty refers to the model’s confidence or doubt in its predictions. Quantifying uncertainty is important to understand how reliable each prediction is. In multiclass classification , uncertainty estimates provide probabilities over multiple classes, reflecting how sure the model is about each possible class. 2. Methods to Estimate Uncertainty in Multiclass Classification Most multiclass classifiers provide methods such as: predict_proba: Returns a probability distribution across all classes. decision_function: Returns scores or margins for each class (sometimes called raw or uncalibrated confidence scores). The probability distribution from predict_proba captures the uncertainty by assigning a probability to each class. 3. Shape and Interpretation of predict_proba in Multiclass Output shape: (n_samples, n_classes) Each row corresponds to the probabilities of ...
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Comparisons of Experimental and Control Groups

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Dr. Rishabh Pathak

Experimental and control groups are essential components of experimental research designs used to investigate causal relationships between variables. Here is a comparison of experimental and control groups in research:


1.    Definition:

o    Experimental Group: The experimental group in a study receives the experimental treatment or intervention being tested by the researcher. This group is exposed to the independent variable(s) under investigation to observe the effects on the dependent variable(s).

o  Control Group: The control group serves as a baseline or comparison group in the study. It does not receive the experimental treatment and is used to compare the outcomes or effects observed in the experimental group to determine the impact of the intervention.

2.    Purpose:

o    Experimental Group: The experimental group allows researchers to test the effects of the independent variable(s) by exposing participants to specific conditions, treatments, or interventions. It helps determine whether the manipulation of the independent variable cause’s changes in the dependent variable.

o    Control Group: The control group provides a reference point for comparison with the experimental group. By not receiving the experimental treatment, the control group helps researchers assess the baseline or natural state of the dependent variable and evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention.

3.    Treatment:

o    Experimental Group: Participants in the experimental group are exposed to the experimental treatment or condition being studied. This treatment may involve receiving a new drug, undergoing a specific intervention, or experiencing a manipulated variable to test its effects.

o    Control Group: Participants in the control group do not receive the experimental treatment and are maintained under standard or neutral conditions. This group helps researchers isolate the effects of the independent variable by providing a comparison against which to evaluate the outcomes in the experimental group.

4.    Comparison:

o    Experimental Group: The experimental group is subjected to the experimental manipulation or intervention to observe changes in the dependent variable. Any differences in outcomes between the pre-test and post-test measurements within the experimental group are attributed to the effects of the independent variable.

o    Control Group: The control group serves as a reference group that allows researchers to assess the natural progression or baseline levels of the dependent variable in the absence of the experimental treatment. By comparing outcomes between the control and experimental groups, researchers can determine the impact of the intervention.

5.    Validity:

o    Internal Validity: Both the experimental and control groups are crucial for establishing internal validity in research. By comparing outcomes between the two groups, researchers can control for confounding variables, minimize bias, and determine whether the observed effects are truly due to the experimental manipulation.

o    External Validity: The use of control groups enhances the external validity of the study by providing a basis for generalizing the results to a broader population or setting. Comparing outcomes between the control and experimental groups helps researchers assess the applicability of the findings beyond the study sample.

6.    Examples:

o  Experimental Group: In a drug trial, the experimental group receives the new medication being tested, while the control group receives a placebo or standard treatment.

o    Control Group: In an educational intervention study, the control group follows the regular curriculum, while the experimental group receives additional tutoring or support to assess its impact on academic performance.

In experimental research, the comparison between the experimental and control groups is essential for evaluating the effects of interventions, establishing causal relationships, and drawing valid conclusions based on the observed outcomes. The use of control groups enhances the rigor and reliability of research findings by providing a basis for comparison and interpretation of results.

 

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